What actually happened
CPI inflation for September came in at 3.5%, up from 3.1% in August and above the 3.4% economists expected. Fuel did most of the work, but core and services inflation also came in above forecast, which is the part the Bank of England cares about. The figure landed a week before the Budget on 28 October and alongside borrowing numbers showing £24.5bn for the month and £97.8bn for April to September, roughly £6bn more than the Office for Budget Responsibility projected in March.
The Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September on a six to three vote, with three members already voting for a rise. It meets again on 5 November with a new Monetary Policy Report, and for the final time this year on 17 December. Ahead of the September inflation figure, markets were already pricing a quarter-point rise in November as close to certain.
Why your fixed rate did not wait for the Bank of England
A two-year or five-year fixed buy-to-let rate is not priced off Bank Rate. It is priced off the swap rate for that period, which is the market's view of where Bank Rate will average over the whole term, plus the lender's margin. The five-year SONIA swap closed at 4.75% on 19 October — a point above Bank Rate, and up about 1.06 points over the past year.
That is why a rise on 5 November may do very little to fixed rates: it has already been priced in. The things that would move them are a change in the expected path beyond November, or a shift in the premium investors demand to hold UK government debt.
That second premium is what the gilt market has been repricing all year. Ten-year gilts have traded around 5.4% through October and the thirty-year briefly touched 6.03% on 1 October, a level last seen in 1998. Long gilts sitting well above Bank Rate is not a forecast of base rate rises; it is the price of inflation risk and the scale of government borrowing. It is also why the Budget on 28 October is a bigger event for fixed mortgage pricing than the MPC meeting the following week.
What this changes about a buy-to-let deal right now
The lowest headline rate is usually bought with a fee
On our sourcing data at 7 October 2026, the lowest two-year fixed rate at 75% LTV for a standard property and clean credit was 3.64% — carrying an arrangement fee of 5% to 7% of the loan, added to the balance. Restrict the search to products with a fee of 2% or less and the lowest two-year rate was 5.36%, and the lowest five-year 5.49%.
Neither number is wrong. They are different products for different holds. A high-fee, low-rate product can win over five years on a large loan and lose badly on a two-year hold or a small one. Compare the total cost over the period you actually intend to hold the loan, not the rate on the front of the sheet.
The stress rate decides how much you borrow, and it does not follow the headline rate
Lenders usually stress a five-year fix at or close to pay rate, and a two-year fix at a higher notional rate. That can reverse the ranking entirely. Taking two real products from the same data: a five-year fix at 4.89% stressed at 5.00%, while a two-year fix at 3.64% stressed at 5.64%.
| Product | Rate | Stressed at | Indicative max loan |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year fix | 4.89% | 5.00% | £288,000 |
| 2-year fix | 3.64% | 5.64% | £255,300 |
| Difference | — | — | £32,700 |
The product with the lower rate borrows roughly £32,700 less on the same rent. If the deal is tight on loan size, the longer fix is often what makes it work — which is the opposite of the instinct to go short and wait for rates to fall. Run your own figures in the buy-to-let calculator.
Waiting for the base rate to fall is a view, not a plan
Markets currently price Bank Rate going up rather than down in the near term. Even on a path where it eventually falls, five-year fixed pricing follows the swap curve and the gilt market, and those carry a risk premium that a Bank Rate cut does not automatically remove. Holding off on a refinance in the expectation of cheaper fixes is a position on the gilt market, and worth taking deliberately rather than by default.
What it means if you are bridging
Most bridging is priced as a margin over Bank Rate or the lender's own variable rate, so a rise on 5 November generally feeds through to the monthly cost quickly, unlike a fixed term loan. Some lenders do offer fixed-rate bridging.
The larger issue is the exit. A bridge underwritten on an assumed refinance has to clear the rent test at whatever stress rate applies when the bridge matures, not when it started. On a twelve-month bridge taken now, that is a test somewhere the other side of the Budget, the November and December MPC meetings and the spring. Build headroom into the exit calculation, and if the exit is a sale rather than a refinance, be honest about the timetable. The bridging calculator shows the full cost including fees and exit charges.
The dates that matter
| Date | Event | Why it matters here |
|---|---|---|
| 28 October 2026 | Autumn Budget | The main driver of the gilt risk premium, and therefore of fixed-rate pricing. |
| 5 November 2026 | MPC decision and Monetary Policy Report | Largely priced in. The forward guidance matters more than the decision. |
| 17 December 2026 | Final MPC decision of 2026 | Whether a second rise follows is still genuinely open. |
Frequently asked questions
If the base rate goes up, will my buy-to-let fixed rate go up by the same amount?
Not necessarily. Fixed buy-to-let rates are priced off swap rates, which move on where the market expects the base rate to be over the whole fixed period, not on where it is today. A base rate rise that the market has already priced in can be announced without fixed rates moving at all.
Why are gilt yields higher than the base rate?
Gilt yields reflect what investors want to be paid to lend to the government for ten or thirty years. That includes expected future interest rates plus a premium for inflation risk and for the scale of government borrowing. When that premium rises, long gilt yields can sit well above the base rate.
Should I take a two-year or a five-year fixed buy-to-let mortgage?
It depends on the stress rate as much as the headline rate. Lenders usually stress a five-year fix at or near pay rate and a two-year fix at a higher notional rate, so a five-year fix often supports a larger loan even when its rate looks higher. Weigh that against the arrangement fee, the early repayment charges and how long you intend to hold the property.
Does a low headline buy-to-let rate always mean a cheaper deal?
No. Many of the lowest buy-to-let rates carry arrangement fees of five per cent or more of the loan, added to the balance. On a short hold or a smaller loan the fee can outweigh the interest saving, so compare the total cost over the period you expect to hold the loan rather than the rate alone.
How does a base rate rise affect a bridging loan?
Most bridging is priced as a margin over the Bank of England base rate or over the lender's own variable rate, so a base rate rise usually feeds through to the monthly cost quickly. Fixed-rate bridging is available from some lenders. The bigger risk on a bridge is the exit, because a refinance has to pass the rent test at the stress rate that applies when the bridge ends.
Sources
CPI and public sector borrowing: Office for National Statistics, released 21 October 2026. Bank Rate and MPC dates: Bank of England, decision of 17 September 2026. SONIA swap rates: indicative end-of-day mid-market levels at 19 October 2026, excluding lender margins. Gilt yields: market levels through October 2026, including the 30-year peak of 6.029% on 1 October. Product rates, fees and stress rates: DAS Finance sourcing data at 7 October 2026, 75% LTV, standard property, clean credit — see live sourcing for current products.